No Access Submitted: 07 March 1985 Accepted: 12 September 1985 Published Online: 04 June 1998
American Journal of Physics 54, 791 (1986); https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447
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  • Max Henrion
  • Baruch Fischhoff
Assessing the uncertainty due to possible systematic errors in a physical measurement unavoidably involves an element of subjective judgment. Examination of historical measurements and recommended values for the fundamental physical constants shows that the reported uncertainties have a consistent bias towards underestimating the actual errors. These findings are comparable to findings of persistent overconfidence in psychological research on the assessment of subjective probability distributions. Awareness of these biases could help in interpreting the precision of measurements, as well as provide a basis for improving the assessment of uncertainty in measurements.
  1. © 1986 American Association of Physics Teachers.